"Why should I quit smoking? OK it's bad for you, but I could get hit by a bus tomorrow..."


How often have we heard that argument? We're not having a pop at smokers in this post, by the way, just the argument, because it makes no sense. Do these people seriously hope to meet a sticky end under the wheels of a Number 23 in order to negate the risk of dying from lung cancer? Does a willingness to accept one risk mean that, for the sake of consistency, we have to accept them all? We all use our arguments selectively and when it suits us, often hoping that we won't be challenged to take the argument to the next level. However this time we will

Most people, smokers and non-smokers, would like to lead a long and healthy life, but it is sadly true that no matter what steps we take, there are no guarantees and, yes, we can all get hit by buses (assuming we live in an environment where buses are also present). Life is full of hazards and each hazard has its risk element. To quit smoking does not guarantee longevity. It doesn't even eliminate the risk of lung cancer, but it does slant the odds in our favour. We increase or decrease our odds by the choices we make. Life is just a series of bets. If we gamble too much and too freely on long odds bets, we increase our chances of coming a cropper. Failing to understand the odds or, some would say worse, ignoring them, again works in favour of the bookie who, in this case, is the grim reaper. To beat the grim reaper, like all good gamblers, we need a system


So what on earth has that got to do with ISO 9001, or OHSAS 18001? Well, a lot as it turns out. A management system is just a collection of controls. Controls that reduce our risks and slant the odds in our favour on a daily basis. Risks of product failure, risks of lost orders, lost information, accidents, litigation, all sorts of risks. Even with our system, we still have no guarantees, but our odds are better, and that's got to be a good thing. That's why we've said in the past that customers like to see management system certification. It gives them confidence that they will have a reduced risk of supplier-related problems. But there are certainly some good systems and some bad systems about, because the quality of our risk reduction strategies will be directly proportional to the quality of our risk assessments, (for an idea how "risk assessment" relates to "quality" check out this earlier post). So we need to get them right for starters. Anyway, the lesson is that the better we understand the risks, the better our controls are likely to be, and the higher will be our chances of success. Our management standards help us to evaluate the odds, and the winners tend to be the ones that understand the odds the best


Las Vegas, it is often said, is a place where people who don't understand maths, give a lot of money to people who do*




*Shaun Sayers, February 2008